Coach Cacchione says...

Coach Talk — Week #6

By JON CACCHIONE

After 6 weeks of the 2008 college football season, it now seems obvious that last year’s inordinate number of upsets of top ten teams was not an enigma. Rather, in today’s college football world, upsets seemingly are the norm. And as I have stated over and over again, that is what is so intriguing to me about this game, and also why I am such a huge fan. Last week saw #1 USC go down to an unranked Oregon St. team. It also saw Georgia get dominated by Alabama, and Florida get nipped by Mississippi. Two more top 5 teams losing to two more unranked teams. Other upsets of prominently ranked teams included Wisconsin going down to Michigan, Wake Forest getting beat by Navy, Clemson losing to Maryland, and East Carolina getting knocked off by Houston. In my opinion, this will continue to major college football. In today’s game, with national recruiting by all teams, and with the vast number of media outlets and television contracts per conferences, and revenue sharing within conferences, all 119 teams can compete for their respective division titles, and nearly every BCS conference team has a legitimate shot at vying for a BCS bowl berth, and therefore a title shot. Can you see parity? Well, college football, after many, many years of the rich getting richer, and 10 or 20 teams dominating annually, we now have a system where literally, anything can happen in any given week. I like the system, and quite honestly, the current bowl system helps contribute to this spike in parity.

One other issue I would like to mention is the play of the Penn State Nittany Lions in the first five games. No one can deny that the Lions have handled their opponents, so far. They crushed Oregon St., who a couple of weeks later, took down topped ranked USC. The PSU offense had their way with an overmatched Illinois defense. The Lions scored 38 against the Illini, which really wasn’t that big of surprise since Missouri scored 52 against that same defense, and the Tigers weren’t even at their home stadium when they did it. The Lions did score 45 against Oregon St., but then again Stanford scored 36 against that same Beaver defense, the week before. Now, I don’t want to sound like I am taking anything away from PSU. After all, right now their offense seems to be clicking with their new quarterback, Daryll Clark. And by the way, Clark has some very talented receivers to throw to in Butler, Williams, and Norwood. But let not the Nittany Lion faithful get too lost in their own hysteria. Your defense stinks. Yep, that’s right, your defense stinks. There are certainly some good reasons why your defensive personnel is not very talented, albeit. The Lions have lost a half-dozen players to the county jail, and of course stand-out LB Sean Lee, to injury. But the bottom line is that your defense will be why the Lions will lose two conference games. What the irrational and football challenged PSU faithful can hang their hats on, however, is that the Big Ten offenses do not seem very good at all. That is precisely why you will only lose two, not more. PSU plays at Camp Randall, home of the Wisconsin Badgers, on October 11th. They also play at the Horseshoe in Columbus, home of the Buckeyes, on October 25th. And as Paulie Walnuts would say, “fogettaboutitt” Nittany heads. By the way, wouldn’t it be fun if Curtis Painter, the Purdue QB finally got his game together this week in West Lafayette. If so, that stellar Lion “D” could prove me wrong and saddle JoePa’s gang with loss #3.

Top Ten

#1 Oklahoma (4-0) My preseason #1 has come back to the top. The Sooners crushed TCU, 35-10. This week, they travel to Waco, Tx, to play the 2-2 Baylor Bears. Oklahoma is a 27 point favorite, and I like them to cover that point spread. My Pick: Oklahoma -27

#2 Missouri (4-0) The Tigers were off last week. This week, they travel to Lincoln to play the Nebraska Cornhuskers. (3-1) The ‘Huskers lost their first game of the year last week when Virginia Tech upset them at home. This week, the order is much taller. Missouri and Chase Daniel are far better than Va. Tech. The line on this one has Missouri a 10 1/2 point favorite. I like them to cover that spread on the road. My Pick: Missouri -10 1/2

#3 LSU (4-0) Don’t look now, but the National Champs are pushing the top of the poll, again. Last week, they had a scare at home. They beat Miss. St. 34-24, not covering the 24 point spread. This week, they are off and will use their time to prepare for a huge SEC game on October 11th vs. Florida in Baton Rouge. That will be huge for LSU, but even bigger for Florida. OFF

#4 Texas (4-0) The Longhorns made their postponed game vs. Arkansas up last week and handled the lowly Razorbacks(2-2) by a score of 52-10. I like the ‘Horns, but continue to stand by them losing two games because of a brutal stretch in their schedule that begins next week with Oklahoma, then Missouri, Oklahoma St., and finally at Texas Tech. I still believe they will lose two games. This week could be trouble if they get caught looking ahead. They are a 14 point favorite on the road in Boulder vs. Colorado.(3-1) I like the Buffaloes with 14 points at home, especially after their tough loss last week in Tallahassee against Florida St. My Pick: Colorado +14

#5 Alabama (5-0) Nick Saban’s team looks like they are for real. With blow outs over Georgia(4-1) last week (41-30) and over Clemson(3-2) in Week #1, the Crimson Tide looks prepped for a run at the SEC title. And that, of course, means a shot at the National Title game. This week, the Tide plays undefeated Kentucky(4-0) at home. The Wildcats’ four wins are against no one. (Louisville, Norfolk St., Middle Tenn. St., & West. Kentucky) The Tide has a legitimate shot at being undefeated when they travel to Baton Rouge on November 8th with a game against LSU.
This week they are a 16 1/2 point favorite, and I like them to cover. My Pick: Alabama –16 1/2

#6 Georgia (4-1) The ‘Dogs slip one spot behind the team that beat them, Alabama. (41-30) I still think they could be a force to reckon with this year. They have some tough ones ahead vs. Vanderbilt, at LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, and at Auburn. This week they are off, and will prepare for their game between the hedges next week vs. Tennessee.
OFF

#7 USC (2-1) As you know, the Trojans were upset last Thursday night at Oregon St., 26-21. They get a tough conference game this week, but it is at home. Oregon(4-1) visits the Coliseum this week after thumping Washington St. last week, 63-14. This is a dangerous one. Have the Trojans rebounded? I am not sure. Are they healthy? I am not sure. One thing that is for sure is that they are home, and as you know, they are one of the best teams at home in the country every year. The line has USC –16. I think that may be too many. I like the Ducks and the points.
My Pick: Oregon +16

#8 Florida (3-1) The Gators were upset at home vs Ole Miss, 31-30. I still cannot believe how they played last week. This week, they get Arkansas, in Fayetteville. The Hogs (2-2) got demolished last week by Texas, 52-10. Florida will take out their frustrations on a completely overmatched Razorback squad. The line is 24, and that won’t be enough to bet Arkansas. My Pick: Florida -24

#9 Penn State (5-0) The Lion offense looked last week. The PSU defense is suspect, at best. They will play against a pretty good QB this week in Curtis Painter, if he is healthy, of Purdue.(2-2) Purdue lost last week to Notre Dame 38-21, and looked bad. This game scares me. The line, by all indications, should be bigger than 13. But it isn’t. The Lions are on the road and they are not the same team. This is a tough one, but I am going to take Penn State and give up the 13. My Pick: Penn St. -13

#10 South Florida (5-0) The Bulls disposed of NC State last week by a score of 41-10. They finally played all four quarters and looked like a top ten team. They are, no doubt, the class of the Little East. This Thursday night, they play at home against Dave “Wannstache’s” Pitt Panthers. (3-1) Pitt needed all 4 quarters to take care of lowly Syracuse last week, 34-24. This one should be a no contest. The Bulls are a 13 1/2 point favorite. I like USF minus the points. My Pick: USF -13 1/2

Dropped out from last week:
#7 Wisconsin after losing 27-25 to Michigan, and after being ahead at half 19-0.
#10 Auburn after a less than impressive 14-12 win against Tennessee at home.


This week’s picks

Thursday
Utah -11 1/2 vs. Oregon St. (I like Utah -11 1/2)
Memphis -3 1/2 @ UAB (I like Memphis -3 1/2)

Friday
Cincinnati –3 @ Marshall (I like Marshall at home +3)

Saturday
Air Force –6 vs. Navy (I like Air Force to cover the 6 points)
West Virginia -14 vs. Rutgers (I like WVU -14)
Michigan St. -8 vs. Iowa (I like the Spartans -8)
Texas Tech -7 1/2 @ Kansas St. (I like the Red Raiders –7 1/2)
Kansas -12 1/2 @ Iowa St. (I like the Jayhawks on the road -12 1/2)
Michigan –2 1/2 vs. Illinois (I like the Illini and the 2 1/2 points)
North Carolina –7 vs. Connecticut (I like the Tarheels -7 since the Uconn QB is out)
Notre Dame –7 vs. Stanford (I like the Irish giving the 7)
Mississippi -2 1/2 vs. South Carolina (I like the Gamecocks outright)
Ohio St. -1 @ Wisconsin (I will go with Wisconsin +1 since they get two starters back this week)

Last Week: 7-11 (How embarrassing)

Overall record after 5 weeks with the spread:
35-34-4