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Coach Talk -- Week #4

By JON CACCHIONE

Some very interesting things occurred this past week on the college football landscape. The 2008-09 season is taking shape now that conference play nears. I would like to share a few of my observations with you regarding who seems to be a legitimate “player” in the race to the National Championship game, and who seems to be a pretender.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that the Ohio State University Buckeyes just may be the biggest “fake” of this short season. After two less-than-impressive performances against Youngstown St. (I-AA), and Ohio University, the “Bucks” took their show to the LA Coliseum and were beaten in every phase of the game, soundly. Even though they played a very talented and well-coached USC Trojan edition, OSU looks average at best, at this stage of the season. They certainly do not belong in the top ten, and I may add, are one poor performance away from being a preseason flop. The California Bears proved this week to be vastly overrated, too. Their loss to a rebuilding Maryland squad was totally unacceptable for a team trying to gain national respect. Arizona State, a team that many thought would challenge USC for the PAC-10 got beat by UNLV. That’s right, I said UNLV. The Sun Devils are proving that their solid season last year was a “fluke.” Two other Big 10 teams proved, again, that this conference continues to lag behind the Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC. Purdue blew a 14 point lead at half to Oregon, and Illinois nipped the always impressive Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns, 20-17. Auburn, an SEC team that I thought could possibly play for the conference title, played very poorly against a very average Mississippi State team. The final score of that one was 3-2.

I know there will be more disappointments, but these seem to be the biggest, so far. And it is certainly worth mentioning again that the Big 10 is a huge disappointment. The winner of that conference better take pride in the Big 10 trophy since it seems right now that it will be the only hardware going to a Big 10 club. The Rose Bowl, regardless of who wins the Big 10 or Pac 10, is already a double digit spread in favor of the “west coasters.” Have I mentioned I am down on the Big 10?

I have also been impressed by some teams in the early going. USC and Oklahoma appear to be on a collision coarse for the National Title Game. It would be a big, big upset for either of them to lose. Missouri looks strong, too, and with a schedule that appears to be weaker than the rest of the top 5, could be looking at spot in the big game, too. Florida, Texas, LSU,and Georgia all look like they are for real, as well, proving one thing so far, and that is that the Big 12 and SEC are the best conferences in the country, from top to bottom. But after what I watched Saturday night, make no mistake, the best team in the country, without any doubt from me, are the USC Trojans.

Last week, my game predictions with the spread improved tremendously. I was 9-3 with ties. I will try to live up to that percentage this week.

Top Ten: Week #4

#1 USC (2-0) — Destroyed Ohio State last week. They are, without a doubt, the best team in the country right now. This week they are off giving them an extra week to prepare for their Pac 10 opener at Oregon St. next Thursday.
OFF

#2 Oklahoma (3-0) — The Sooners have not been challenged, yet. They handled Washington last week on the road. They, too, are off this week as they prepare for their toughest test to date next week against TCU.
OFF

#3 Missouri (3-0) -- The Tigers are for real. I still believe their QB, Chase Daniel, wins the Heisman. Their schedule is quite manageable, and they are flat out good. They bombed Nevada last week. They will do the same this week when Buffalo comes to Columbia. The Tigers are a 34 point favorite according to the bookmakers. The Bulls are 2-1, with a last second win against Temple. Missouri is good, but I will take the Bulls with the points.
My Pick: Buffalo +34

#4 Florida (2-0) The Gators were off last week. If they use the off week as well as USC did, they will handle the always tough Tennessee Vols (1-1). The game is in Knoxville, and of course that should keep UT close for awhile. I love this Gator team. They play like they did two years ago. The oddsmakers have Florida a 7-point favorite. I will take the Gators to cover.
My Pick: Florida -7

#5 Georgia (3-0) The Bulldogs outlasted South Carolina last week, 14-7. Georgia may not face a better defense then the one they faced last week all year. And, they won on the road. This week, they travel again, but this time across the country to disappointing Arizona State (2-1). The Sun Devils were upset last week by UNLV. The line on this is also 7-points, with the ‘Dogs favored. This one will be close, and it may not be a good week to get the ‘Devils.
This one is my upset. I like Arizona State with the points, and they just may win outright.
My Pick: Arizona State +7

#6 LSU (2-0) The Tigers demolished North Texas last week, as everyone expected. The competition increases greatly this week as they travel to Auburn (3-0). In the last 4 year, these two teams have split, with the home team winning each time. By the way, those 4 games were decided by an average of 3 1/2 points. The Tigers have been struggling on offense so far. The line on this one has LSU a 2 1/2 point favorite. I like the home team, again.
My Pick: Auburn +2 1/2

#7 Wisconsin (3-0) The Badgers had a big win at Fresno St., 10-7. They appear to be the best team in the Big 10, right now, although that doesn’t seem to mean much these days. They are off this week, and will begin preparing for a trip to the Big House next week vs. Michigan.
Off

#8 Texas (2-0) The Longhorns get back in action this week after their game last week vs. Arkansas was postponed due to Hurricane Ike. They will play Rice (2-1) who lost at Vanderbilt this past week. The Owls are better this year than last. The ‘Horns are a 30 1/2 point favorite, and that just may be a little bit much. I like what Texas has done so far, but that is too many points as far as I’m concerned. Take the Owls.
My Pick: Rice +30 1/2

#9 Southern Florida (3-0) The Bulls may not lose again. They outlasted a tough Kansas squad last week at home. The Big East is down again this year, and I would not be surprised to see this team run the table. Their last game this year is at West Virginia. Other than that, and maybe an interesting trip to Cincinnati in October, I don’t think they will be challenged. Thus, I have them in the top ten. Remember, these are the teams I think have the best chance to get to BCS National Championship Game. The Bulls will destroy Florida International this week, and yes, they will cover the 28 point spread.
My Pick: USF -28

#10 Auburn (3-0) The Tigers must get their offense on track. They scored 3 points last week, and the offense gave up 2 points, to outlast an average Mississippi St. team, 3-2. It get much, much tougher this week as LSU visits. I don’t know why, I guess I’ll go with the history in this one where the home team wins. I like Auburn, outright.
My Pick: Auburn +2 1/2

Dropped out: Ohio State (2-1)

Other Picks for Week #4:

Wednesday 9/17
Kansas St. (-4) @ Louisville My pick: Kansas St. (-4)

Thursday 9/18
West Virginia (-3) @ Colorado My pick: Colorado (+3)

Friday 9/19
Connecticut -13 vs Baylor My pick: Connecticut (-13)

Saturday 9/20
Penn St. (-28) vs Temple My pick: Temple (+28)
Northwestern (-11) vs Ohio My pick: Ohio (+11)
Mississippi (-6 1/2) vs Vanderbilt My pick: Vanderbilt (+6 1/2)
Alabama (-9 1/2) @ Arkansas My pick: Alabama (-9 1/2)
Pittsburgh (-1) vs Iowa My pick: Iowa (+1)
Florida St. (-4) vs. Wake Forest My pick: Wake Forest (+4)
Michigan St. (-8 1/2) vs ND My pick: Michigan St. (-8 1/2)
Ohio St. (-21 1/2) vs Troy My pick: Troy (+21 1/2)

RECORD TO DATE: 18 – 17 - 3