Big game winner is...

Coach Talk:  Week #10

by Coach Jon Cacchione

Who will win the game of the year?  Who will win the game between, arguably the best two teams in college football?  Well, we will know Saturday night.  This Saturday, #1 meets #2 in Tuscaloosa.  Alabama has to be given a bit of an edge just because they are in the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium.  However, the game, like most championship caliber contests, will more than likely hinge on defense, special teams, and turnovers.  If so, let us look at how each team is doing in those 3 areas.  

Alabama gives up a nation-leading 6.9 points per game.  LSU gives up 11.5 points per game, 3rd best in the country.  The Crimson Tide allows just 180.5 yards per game which is also tops in the country, while the Tigers allow 251.4 yards per game, which is good for 4th best in the nation.  Alabama also has the edge in the number of passing yards allowed each game with 135.6 y/g compared to LSU’s 174.8 y/g.  Defensively, the Tide has a small edge over the Tigers.  Many coaches at all levels will tell you that the “Punt” is the most important play in football.  LSU has punted 38 times this year for an average of 43.4 yards/kick.  Alabama has punted 27 times this year for an average of 37 yards/kick.  To really appreciate those averages, one should also look at how many of those kicks were returned, for how many yards they were returned, and how many put the opposing offense inside their own 10 yard line.  Still not a big enough difference between these two, yet.  The final statistic that I believe very well could be the difference is turn over ratio.  Both teams are solid here, but LSU definitely has the edge.  The Tigers are +15 (#2 in the country) after 8 games, the Crimson Tide +6. (#18 in the country.)  So recapping, ‘Bama is home: edge, LSU has played a better schedule: edge, and the three most important statistics seemed to be a “push.”  Good luck selecting the winner.  The one thing I guess we all can predict with a high-level of certainty is that at 8:00 Saturday night, we will all be watching #1 vs. #2 on CBS.  

Top 15:  Week #10

1. Alabama (8-0) Off last week.  This week vs. #2 LSU (8-0) who was also off last week.
2. LSU (8-0) Off last week.  This week vs. #1 Alabama (8-0) who was also off last week.
3. Stanford (8-0) Beat USC (6-2) 56-48 in triple overtime.  At Oregon St. (2-6), a 27-8 loser to Utah last week.
4. Boise St. (7-0) Off last week.  At UNLV (2-5), a 38-35 winner over Colorado St. last week.
5. Oklahoma St. (8-0) Beat Baylor (4-3) 59-24.  Home vs.#12  Kansas St. (7-1), a 58-17 loser to Oklahoma last week.
6. Oregon (7-1) Beat Washington St. (3-5) 43-28.  At Washington (6-2), a 42-31 winner over Arizona last week.
7. Oklahoma (7-1) Beat #12 Kansas St. (7-1) 58-17.  Home vs. Texas A&M (5-3), an overtime loser to Missouri last week, 38-31.
8. Nebraska (7-1) Beat Michigan St. (6-2) 24-3.  Home vs. Northwestern (3-5), a 59-38 winner over Indiana last week.
9. Clemson (8-1) Lost to Georgia Tech (6-2), 31-17 last week.  Off this week.  Next vs Wake Forest.
10. Arkansas (7-1) Beat Vanderbilt (4-4) 31-28.  Home vs. #11 South Carolina (7-1) this week, a 14-3 winner over Tennessee.
11. South Carolina (7-1) Beat Tennessee (3-5) 14-3.  At #10 Arkansas this week, a 31-28 winner over Vanderbilt last week.
12. Kansas St. (7-1) Lost to #7 Oklahoma last week, 58-17,  At #5 Oklahoma St. (8-0) this week, a 59-24 winner vs. Baylor last week.
13. Virginia Tech (8-1) Beat Duke (3-5) 14-10.  Off this week.  Next vs. Georgia Tech next Thursday night.
14. Michigan (7-1) Beat Purdue (4-4) 36-14.  Play at Iowa (5-3) this week, an upset loser to Minnesota last week, 22-21.
15. Penn St. (8-1) Beat Illinois (6-3) 10-7.  Off this week.  Next week vs. #8 Nebraska.
    

Dropped Out:  Wisconsin (6-2);  Michigan St. (6-2).

Nearing Top 15:  Wisconsin (6-2);  Michigan St. (6-2);  Georgia Tech (7-2);  USC (6-2);  Arizona St. (6-2); Cincinnati (7-1);  Houston (8-0);  Georgia (6-2).

Interesting Games This Week: {Last week:  5-10 vs. spread}  (64-71 after 9 weeks)

Thu.
Florida St. -14 1/2 @ Boston College (I like the Seminoles on the road)
Fri.
USC –22 @ Colorado  (Watch out Buffs, Trojans are angry)
Sat.
Louisville +13 1/2 at West Virginia (I like the points)
Syracuse +2 @ Connecticut (Going with the Orangemen)
Michigan –4 @ Iowa (Hawkeyes weak on offense and defense this year)  
Texas Tech @ Texas –12 (Going with the ‘Horns)
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma –13 1/2 (Love the Sooners this week)
Stanford –20 1/2 @ Oregon St. (Sticking with the Cardinal)
Cincinnati –2 1/2 @ Pittsburgh (Graham out, going with the Bearcats)
South Carolina @ Arkansas –5 (Gamecocks offense in trouble)
Arizona St. -9 1/2 @ UCLA  (Going with Sun Devils)
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +14 (Irish are inconsistent, and on the road)
Oregon @ Washington +15 1/2  (I have a feeling the Huskies keep it close at home)
Kansas St. @ Oklahoma St. -21 (Going with the scoring machine, the Cowboys)
LSU +5  @  Alabama (Like the Tide to win but not by more than 5)