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Coach Talk:  Week #6

by Coach Jon Cacchione

As we enter week #6 of the college football season, we shall take a look at the Erie area’s most followed college teams.  It has been, at best, a fair start for our big three here in Erie.  Penn State, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame have each had their moments, but mostly, have done little so far to convince us they will contend at the national level.  Let us take a look at what has transpired so far for these teams, and how I think each will do the rest of the way.

Penn St.  (4-1;  1-0) The Lions have beaten FCS Indiana St.; Eastern Michigan; Temple; and Indiana.   The 3 FBS schools (EMU; Temple; and Indiana) are a combined 7-8 on the year.  Worse yet, the Lions were in 4 quarter battles with Indiana and Temple, and did not dismiss EMU until the 4th quarter.  The Lions are sputtering on offense something terrible.  They have 7 remaining games, all in the Big 10, 3 of which are on the road.  I have them finishing 7-5 at best, and that’s with wins this week against Iowa and at home vs. Illinois on October 29th.  They will most certainly beat Purdue at home in two weeks, but lose at Northwestern, at Ohio St., at Wisconsin, and at home vs. Nebraska.  It is entirely possible that the ‘Nits finish 5-7 and get expelled from the Bowl season.  

Projected finish:  7-5      If things go really well:  8-4          If the QB’s don’t improve:  5-7

Pittsburgh  (3-2;  1-0)   I would be blasting the Panthers if not for last week’s unexpected blow out over USF.  Pitt looked awful against Notre Dame on offense, and totally collapsed against a very average Iowa team the week before.  They were less than impressive in weeks one and two against FCS Maine, and Buffalo.  Their lackluster start can be attributed to a new, late arriving coaching staff.  Certainly, their performance last Thursday night at home against South Florida was eye-opening.  The key to the Panthers will be the health of their running back Ray Graham.  I think he is terrific.  I see the boys from Oakland finishing 8-4 with losses at home vs. Utah, and away at West Virginia.  It is possible that they beat the Utes, since it is at Heinz Field.  But it is also possible for this team to finish 6-6 with additional losses to Cincinnati at home, against Rutgers this week in Piscataway.  

Projected finish:  8-4      If things go really well:  9-3          If the injury bug bites:  6-6

Notre Dame  (3-2)   The Irish could very easily be undefeated.  A late loss to South Florida by three, and one of the most unbelievable losses I’ve ever seen to Michigan have kept this team from being in the National Title discussion.  The good news for Irish faithful is that I only see one more loss on the schedule, with certainty.  I don’t think there is any question that Brian Kelly and his team will have a difficult time their last game of the year at Stanford.  The Irish, will however, be the favorite in every other game they play.  Yes, they will be tested by both Navy and Air Force, as usual. But they beat both of them.  They will not have trouble at Wake Forest, or at home vs. Maryland and Boston College.  So, I will mark them down for 9-3.  The key in my opinion will be the continued development of the run game.  Their QB’s are just too  ‘green’ (pardon the pun) to shoulder the entire offense each week.  

Projected finish:  9-3      If things go really well:  9-3    (Forget the BCS, Domers!)
If the running game stumbles:  8-4    (one of Service Academies could pull the upset)

Top 15:  Week #6

1. Alabama  (5-0)  Beat Florida (4-1) 38-10.  Home this week vs. Vanderbilt (3-1) who was off last week.
2. Oklahoma  (4-0) Beat Ball St. (3-2) 62-6.  Play Texas (4-0) this week in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas beat Iowa St. last week 37-14.
3. LSU  (5-0)  Beat Kentucky (2-3) last week 35-7.  Home this week vs. Florida (4-1), a 38-10 loser to Alabama last week.
4. Boise St. (4-0)  Beat Nevada (1-3) 30-10.  Play at Fresno St. (2-3) Friday night, a 38-28 loser to Mississippi last week.
5. Stanford  (4-0)  Beat UCLA (2-3) last week 45-19.  Home this week vs. Colorado (1-4), a 31-27 loser to Washington St. last week.
6. Wisconsin  (5-0) Crushed Nebraska (4-1) last week 48-17.  The Badgers are off this week.
7. Oregon  (3-1)  Off last week.  Play Thursday night vs. California (3-1), who was off last week as well.
8. Oklahoma St.  (4-0)  Off last week.  Home this week vs. Kansas (2-2), a 45-34 loser to Texas Tech last week.
9. Clemson  (5-0)  Beat Virginia Tech (4-1) last week 23-3.  Home this week vs. Boston College (1-4), a 27-19 loser to Wake Forest last week.
10. Arkansas  (4-1)  Beat Texas A&M (2-2) last week 42-38.  Home this week vs. #14 Auburn (4-1), a 16-13 winner last week vs. South Carolina.  
11. Nebraska  (4-1)  Lost to #6 Wisconsin (5-0) last week 48-17.  This week at home vs. Ohio St. (3-2), a 10-7 loser to Michigan St. last week.
12. Georgia Tech  (5-0) Beat NC St. (2-3) last week 45-35.  Home this week vs. Maryland (2-2), a 28-23 winner over FCS Towson St. last week.
13. Michigan  (5-0)  Beat Minnesota (1-4) last week 58-0.  This week at Nortwestern (2-2), a 38-35 loser to Illinois last week.  
14. Auburn  (4-1)  Beat South Carolina (4-1) last week 16-13.  At #10 Arkansas (4-1) this week, a 42-38 winner vs. Texas A&M last week.
15. West Virginia  (4-1)  Beat Bowling Green (3-2) 55-10.  Home this week again vs. Connecticut (2-3), a 38-31 loser to Western Michigan last week.
    

Dropped Out:  Virginia Tech (4-1);  Florida (4-1);  Texas A&M (2-2);  South Carolina (4-1);  South Florida (4-1).

Nearing the Top 15:  Texas (4-0);  Illinois (5-0);  Florida (4-1);  South Carolina (4-1);  Virginia Tech (4-1); Kansas St. (4-0);  North Carolina (4-1);  Houston (5-0).

Interesting Games in Week #6: (6-9 last week against the spread)  (Year to date: 41-34)
Thu.
Cal +24 @ Oregon  (I cannot lay that many in a rivalry, conference game.)
Fri.
Boise St. -21 @ Fresno St. (Broncos too touch for the Bulldogs this year.)
Sat.
Oklahoma –10 vs. Texas  (I like the Sooner to cover in the Red River Rivalry)
Florida St. -13 @  Wake Forest (EJ Manuel  is back, so I’m picking FSU)
Florida @ LSU  -13 1/2  (Brantley out, I like the Tigers to cover)
Missouri  @ Kansas St.  +3 1/2 (I like the Wildcats with the points at home)
Air Force +16 @ Notre Dame  (Air Force eats up a lot of clock.  Irish win, not by 16)
Pitt –6 1/2 @ Rutgers  (Panthers on a roll)  
Iowa +4 @ Penn St. (Until the offense gets better, I can’t pick the Lions)
Ohio –8 1/2 @  Buffalo  (The Bobcats are pretty good)
Auburn  +10  @  Arkansas (The Hogs are banged up, too many points for the Tigers)
Miami, FL  @ Virginia Tech  -7 1/2  (I don’t think the ‘Canes are very good)
Michigan @ Northwestern +7 (Just a hunch, I’m going with the ‘Cats)
Ohio St. @ Nebraska –11 (More troubles for the Buckeyes)
Georgia –1  @ Tennessee  (Could Mark Richt have the ‘Dogs on track?)